Ken Pitterson’s Daily Tips

My method of selection involves looking for value. Often this will mean a horse available at a big price that has a realistic chance but that does not mean that a short priced favourite cannot represent value.

Today we have a horse with ten course victories including over today's trip, with two course wins and two seconds in his last four runs, officially 7lbs well in according to the handicapper, running against three rivals yet available at odds against. In my book that also equates to value.

INGLEBY ARCH is a standing dish at Southwell admittedly plying his trade in claimers and sellers nowadays but he has twice won handicaps over course and distance off 88 in the past. He was beaten by a similarly rated horse last time. He is probably a little better over 7f nowadays but I can see them going pretty quick today despite the smallish field which should make up for that.

Punching is also well at home at Southwell but I would see 6f as his maximum. He looks likely to run to around 65 but I don't think that will be enough to beat Ingleby Arch. I can see him setting the pace but being outgalloped in the final two furlongs.

Cape Of Storm's handicap wins round here have all come off significantly lower handicap marks than would be required to trouble Ingleby Arch. If the form of his latest win at Wolverhampton could be read literally then he would be a big threat today but that result had more to do with him being able to dictate matters in front and I can't see him having things all his own way today. To win today he should have to put up a career best effort and I don't see that being likely at the age of nine.

Finally Pilgrim Dancer has well over a stone to find on recent efforts and I don't see why he should be able to trouble the principals. His only handicap win to date came a year ago off a mark of 55.

To summarise, this race should be run at a good pace with INGLEBY ARCH running on at the end. He is the best horse in the field and so I view the 11/10 available as being overpriced in a race where I would make him no bigger than 4/6.

Made a successful handicap debut at fontwell off a mark of 114. He ran well off a 11lb higher mark when third to Ranjaan looking as if the run was needed. He should build on that.

The form of his last race has worked out well and he is at the right end of the handicap to take advantage. This looks a winnable opportunity.

Broke his duck at Towcester and ran in a Grade 2 when falling at the second. He starts off in a handicap off a mark of 130 and Alan King has won this race twice in the last 3 years.

Ran an eyecatching race behind Swincombe Flame, but it looked as if he found the trip too far. He steps back in trip and could have more to offer off his light weight.

Goes well fresh and has a good record right handed. Won this race last year and has the best form in the race. If he is at his best he should win.